Jeff Saut Conference Call Recap
If you missed Tuesday’s call with Chief Investment Strategist and Managing Director of Equity Research for Raymond James, Jeff Saut, you can read the recap below. We’ve gone ahead and outlined the points that we found most relevant.
1. No indications of a coming US recession.
- Both Raymond James’ Chief Economist, Scott Brown, and Chief Investment Strategist and Managing Director of Equity Research for Raymond James, Jeff Saut, believe there is very little evidence to indicate the US is going into a recession.
2. The market is expected to bounce back after the recent decline.
- “Selling Stampedes” historically have lasted 17 – 25 days. We’re currently on day 13. Jeff also stressed that mixed in to those 17 – 25 selling sessions there are typically 1-3 “throwback rallies,” in which the market looks to stop the stampede.
3. Out of the S&P 500 companies who have reported earnings so far, 74% beat projected expectations.
4. Fears over China are misplaced.
- China is not as big of a threat to the US as reported – only 7% of GDP exports are to China. Furthermore, Jeff does not believe that China will go into a recession, rather China is in the middle of an economic shift from an export economy to a consumption economy.
5. Dropping oil prices are a positive.
- The cost of crude oil is not a good indicator of the strength of our economy. Jeff explained “too much supply” is causing extremely low barrel prices. However, the countries that produce the most oil like Russia, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia all need cash and will continue to pump oil.
6. The Royal Bank of Scotland’s response to “sell everything” is not surprising.
- In response to some questions regarding statements from The Royal Bank of Scotland urging investors to “sell out” of the market, Jeff explained that the RBS have only been bullish (positive) on the economy once in his 44 year career.
7. The key to long term results in the stock market is more about the management of risk and not the management of returns.
The idea of risk is something that we stress often, which essentially is defined as how much downside are you willing to endure in order to have the opportunity to grasp more market upside. Every one of you has a different answer to that question and that is why we are here to help you come to a personal conclusion.
Although 2016 has not been a great start with the investment world, we are optimistic by the sentiments from Jeff Saut, a widely-respected professional with a significant amount of experience and wisdom. Our view is not based just on Jeff, but also on what we hear from many qualified investment professionals across the industry.
It has been projected that 2016 will be a volatile year but as we think back, this has been said of every year!
As always, we are here to talk further about your personal situation and anything that you would like us to discuss further.
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